Brian Fargo and Others on The Rising Costs of Game Development
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If somebody asked me what the gaming industry should do to deal with the rising development costs, I would tell them to spend less money on fancy visuals, latest shaders, and unnecessary cutscenes and voice acting, and instead utilize smaller teams that focus on delivering their unique artistic visions and crafting compelling gameplay. But that's me, and nobody asks me.
Instead, GameIndustry.biz asked InXile's Brian Fargo, Hidden Path's Jeff Pobst, and Turtle Rock's Steve Goldstein, which led to this extensive article filled with doomsaying and mentions of games-as-a-service and Netflix-like subscription models. And considering that many of the recent RPGs were made by these mid-tier studios the article is talking about, the genre's future isn't looking so bright. I guess we should start hoping for another RPG renaissance already, eh?
A few snippets:
"The industry continues to get more binary between the haves and have nots," Fargo continues. "When I see something like salaries going to as high as $20,000 per man-month in San Francisco, that really only affects the smaller to mid-size companies. The big companies - take Blizzard, for example - they can drop $70 million on a project, kill it and then start all over again. Rockstar can spend five years on a game.
"The extra salaries really don't affect them, in my opinion, as much as it does the smaller to the mid-size companies. So yeah, it definitely puts pressure on us.
"Also, what I'm seeing recently is that there was the single-A and double-A indie space that was sort of ripe for opportunity for a while - us included, and we've been doing well - but that's getting more competitive. And the budgets of the double-A products are starting to approach triple-A budgets of 10 years ago."
Citing Ninja Theory's Hellblade and Larian's Divinity: Original Sin 2 as recent examples, Fargo laments that expectations for games coming out of the double-A space are rising too rapidly.
"All of a sudden double-A developers are spending in excess of $10 million," he says. "And it's only a matter of time before this rises to $20 million. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some at those values already. So now what you've got is the triple-A people who are unaffected by the salaries and they're going to be spending hundreds of millions of dollars between production and marketing, and then you've got the double-A companies now starting to spend significant money. What that's going to do is to create an expectation from a user's perspective of what the visuals should look like.
"It creates a harder dynamic for even the smaller companies, because some product is at $39 or $44.95 that doesn't have a multi-million dollar marketing budget. It's still going to have production values that are incredible, and so what will people expect out of a smaller developer? That's the cascading effect of all these different things, and of course you layer on top of that the discoverability issue we've all got with an un-curated platform and it makes it very tricky."
While the major publishers like Activision or EA still manage to reap massive profits, other studios are certainly not getting wealthy by making games. California, where so much of the industry is based, makes the cost equation even more difficult.
"Consumers don't fully understand how truly expensive it is to put out a AAA game now," says Turtle Rock GM Steve Goldstein. "If you start looking at what it costs for someone to be employed in southern California, working in the knowledge industry, it's a lot. And the most frustrating thing actually, and it's something I complain about at the studio all the time, is that we got people here that are working their butts off, who do well, but still can't afford to buy a house in southern California. It's ridiculous. The cost of doing business in tech is so high, especially in California, [that] unless you are the biggest of the biggest, there's a real risk of being able to continue in this medium.
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"It depends on the genre you're in, but the scope and scale of the thing is what you really need to keep an eye on," Fargo advises. "The visual and audio expectations are rising as the budgets for the double-A games has risen... I would tell developers to keep a really close eye on the scope of the product; better to have something that's very small and tight and polished than something that's overly large... and hits a lot of different things but don't quite visually hold up to the others."
The other issue to contend with is how games are transforming to games-as-a-service, which could be a positive in terms of generating more revenue or a negative because of the need to support staff year-round.
"As I look out towards the future, we are most definitely looking to incorporate aspects of that business model," Fargo notes. "The plus sides of it, of course, is that there's no piracy, and you're able to do better business in some territories where piracy is extremely high. But also it allows you to build a community and have a live-ops team and do [fewer] products, but keep people on it everyday and make it better - doing tournaments and all of those things... It's a very compelling thing to have [but] it does put pressure on a single-player experience game."
Turtle Rock's Goldstein sees the games-as-a-service model going one step further, effectively becoming Netflix-like subscriptions to access content; something big publishers like Ubisoft and EA have predicted is on the horizon. Subscription revenue could be a way to help mitigate rising costs.
"I can absolutely see something like that happening down the line," he says. "Netflix is now playing with budgets that are approaching blockbuster films, so I could see those numbers working for each of the publishers, where they have their users paying a subscription and they release a certain number of really high-end titles as well as a bunch of indie titles... I could see that in five years."
Rising costs have been putting the squeeze on mid-sized studios, but that's not to say triple-A developers and publishers are immune. As Pobst points out, "There used to be a lot more publishers than there are now." As the saying goes, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, and smaller companies have a chance to succeed by being more nimble.
"Adapting is part of the game industry," Pobst continues. "You try and find the areas to adapt to that match your skill set. If you're a great narrative designer and your team makes great narrative games, you probably don't go into mobile and focus on free-to-play monetization. It's not really playing to your strengths."
