Originally posted by Bloodstalker
I am not sure of when, but I am of the belief that a war is likely, and also will take longer than a lot of people in the U.S. seem to think it will.
This war, if fought, will be very much different than the previous war with Iraq. Previously, Iraq was in the position of being the aggressor. They had invaded kuwait, and regardless of whether or not the U.S. had indicated it's stance one way or the other to Iraq prior to the invasion, that move cast Iraq in a definate role that made it possible for the majority of the powers to line on the opposite side as them. It also made it a more citezen frindly war in the U.S. due to the feeling among the population that we were aprt of an operation to liberate a country that was being invaded and having atrocities committed against it's citizens.
Going in, Iraq's military might was not deployed in a manner that made it a diffucult conflict. The Iraq military had taken a large amount of their mobile units, and dug them in, in essence taking away any strength those units possessed and reducing them to not much more than sitting ducks for air strikes. Troops surrendered in bunches, so much so that the speed of the conflict was to me more a result of mass amounts of Iraqi troops laying down their arms rather than being beaten and forced to surrender.
In this instance, Iraq will be fighting in it's own backyard. I don't forsee troops reacting to an invasion in the same way they reacted to the previous war. This time, any troops moving into Iraq's borders will be viewed as the agressors. That simple fact could make this conflict much more difficult than a lot of people think. While the war did reach well into Iraq's borders last time, it was more of a reaction to iraq's action. There is a big difference in driving an army from someones borders and persuing it back into it's own. I think the reasoning may have been among the troops that there was no clear indication that anyone wanted to occupy and subjuicate Iraq. In this instance, the people of Iraq will more likely view this as a threat to their national identity, with the consequences of losing being that their nation either is assimulatted or occupied, in either case, the thinking would be more along the lines of fighting simply for survival.
Another thing I think will be different is I do not believe the Iraq forces will be mobilized in the same manner as in the last war. the way the military was used was disastrous for Iraq. It is difficult for me to believe that Iraq has not learned from it's previous experience. Saddam may be a lot of things, but it is unsafe to assume he is stupid. It just seem to me like the population and administration in the U.S. is expecting a simple re-play of the last war, and that would be a very dangerous assumption to make.
Just my opinion
You raise some interesting points here, BS. I'd like to concern myself with your last paragraph, concerning the deployment of Iraqi military forces...
As most of us know, (primarily) the United States conducted a withering air war against Iraqi targets during Operation Desert Shield/Storm. The effects of these sorties, the most ever conducted by the US Air Force in that period of time, was devastating upon the Iraqi military.
US military technology is actually quite frightening. What people saw on CNN is only but a tip of the iceberg in the gadget department. The only way I forsee Iraq being able to withstand prolonged US air superiority (which then leads to ground superiority) is for their military to utilize an elaborate subterranean tunnel network...even then, they must face the very real possibility of these hideouts being detected by spy satellites...which, btw, is a mainstay of US military intelligence (I know, contradiction of terms there

). Those satellites are themselves frightening...Once detected, the US military can destroy such a complex using a surgical strike down a ventilation shaft...
Truth be told, the US is capable of precision strikes from the land, air, and the sea. Iraq does not possess the defenses necessary to counter these measures...which is why they were annihilated during the desert operations in the early 90's. I'm not so sure things would be different now, BS.