[QUOTE=Slick Fork]I'm just curious, for those of you who were/are against the U.S. involvement in Iraq, what do you think the reasoning behind going in was? As far as the WMD/Bin-Laden connection goes, it is documented fact that;
1) Hussein did at one point in time have access to various chemicals and that he DID use them against dissidents in his own country as well as the Iranians.
2) He had ample time between the war to liberate Kuwait and the second gulf war to move those weapons either out of country, or into well hidden depots that have yet to be discovered. Iraq is a big place full of terrain that makes searching for these things a time consuming and man-power intensive task. <snip>
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And many years spend by the UN observers finding nothing of significance.
Nobody is denying that Iraq/Saddam Hussein have had access to biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction, but there were no real evidence pointing to the fact that he had WMD now, or even the capacity of making them.
Past behaviour, while a good indication of future behaviour is not proof.
Besides - other countries have WMD and unstable or hostile Governments. But less resources and more problems connected to using force towards them.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
I seem to remember that shortly after the war, Libya came forward and announced the dismantling of it's nuclear program. Could it be that with Hussein out of power, funding for a joint program dried up? (I don't have any proof 1 way or the other, but it's a possibility you can't rule out, just food for thought)
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While Libya’s "conversion" was welcomed, the question of it all would be if they wouldn't have done something similar as this even without the Iraqi-conflict. Libya has the possibility for great oil finds, but no way of utilizing those, themselves and only limited sources to sell it to (and those were already oil-producing countries themselves). Gadaffi I think only used it as a reason to not loose as much face as he would have otherwise imo.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
3) Hussein Did support the families of suicide bombers, is it really that much of a stretch to imagine other support as well? I will concede that Hussein and Bin Laden were at very opposite ends of the religious spectrum, making co-operation unlikely but a mutual hatred of America could make for strange alliances.
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While I haven't seen a real link between Bin Laden and Hussein, I don't doubt that he has properly supported terrorism in one form or the other. But this was not the public stated reason for invading Iraq; it was the WMD question and non-compliance with UN regulative (which were used as an indicator of existence of WMD).
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
Do any of you really think that the U.S. soldiers would follow the "this way to WMD depot" signs out of Baghdad?
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Well - looking at the rhetoric used by the US Government trying to persuade other nations to join their war, it was the image given. The emphasize was made so strongly on the existence of WMD, that the failure to find any so far is a really good indicator towards the fact that they didn't really know what they were talking about. (IMO). And I think this is a very important point.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
What were the possible reasons for the U.S. invading Iraq? Let's look at some of the possibilities;
1) To liberate the Iraqi people and remove a violent dictator from an already troubled region. This would assume that a government is capable of acting selflessly for the good of the region.
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I believe this was part of the reasons, but I am not sure of the altruistic reasons for doing this. Insertion/backing of a "puppet-regime" is a possibility. This has happened before in other states. This could help provide a platform in the region. The Middle East is tremendously anti-USA and anti-western world, so a friendly face in the region would valuable. And although Israel is pro-USA and western world, it is hardly usable for such a platform as a pro-USA Iraq would be.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
2) To remove an actual threat to American interests and those of her allies. While Hussein could never directly threaten the U.S., Saddam did pose a very real threat to all his neighbours, of whom Israel and Saudi Arabia (to a lesser extent) are proven allies.
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After the first war (Desert Storm), I doubt many percived Iraq as a possible threat towards the region. The threat was mostly towards its own population. Isreal would have little to fear from Iraq, partly due to the distance, the Isreal military (which is formidable) and the fact that it is strongly supported. The only possible directly military threat towards Isreal from Iraq would be if Iraq could gather an alliance towards it and this alliance would go to war. Otherwise it would be via terroristic bombings, and Isreal alreay suffers these, so that is hardly a possibility. Iraq couldn't attack or threat Saudi-Arabia either, that would cause most other Islamic countries in the region to turn against Iraq. After the Iran-Iraq conflict, Iraq only had the possiblity to military threaten small states, withouth getting into a major conflict - and Iraq had already learned that lesson when they tried in the first gulf-war. So a threat to allies? - I can't buy that one at all.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
3) To send a message to other dictatorships that they must play by the rules. If this is the case Iraq would be the most likely target, they didn't have any real alliances and were generally disliked by everyone on the world stage.
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This is a reason I can agree with - if only it was because Iraq wasn't so weak already. It isn't any kind of a signal to stronger dictatorial regimes if you pick on one of the weakest of the crowd. The large schoolyard bullies aren’t impressed if you pick on the weakest guy of the lot.
Iraq would however be the best (easiest) target, because of their weakened nation.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
4) To gain the appreciation of everybody in the region. Not likely as a 6 year old could tell you that you don't make friends by beating people up.
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Agreed, but one should still not underestimate a friendly face in the region if a pro-USA government was created afterwards. Then USA would have two supporters in the region, and one being an oil-producing country would be very beneficial.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
5) To consolidate American influence in the region. As the worlds largest consumer of oil, I think the U.S. has lots of influence as it is but a little more never hurts I guess.
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Wrong - Who do you think suffer most if the tab is turned off, and no oil is produced?
The oil-hungry countries. Being the world’s largest consumer of oil makes USA have absolutely no influence at all, because they are at the economical mercy of the ones that has the goods. It is basic laws of capitalism ... the oil-industry is in a sellers market, and thus they have the power. It would only become a buyers market, if a large part of the world, collectively, stopped requesting oil. Not likely (yet).
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
6) To forcibly annex Iraq and gain strategic control of its oilfields. This one I've gotta toss right out the window. I don't have any hard numbers but the sheer cost of modern combat operations would make such an idea ludicrous. I was just looking at the airforce page, they don't list fuel burns so I can't get any idea how much it costs just to launch an aircraft, but they do have ordnance costs per weapon (Harm missile comes in at a bargain $200,000 a piece) They have spent more on this war, then they could possibly get back from oil revenues, they were also getting Iraqi oil for a lower price when Hussein was in power through the oil for food and medicine program. The other thing to consider with the "We're here to take your oil" argument is that Canada and Mexico have oil deposits that Rival those of Iraq. If Bush just wanted control over oil it would've been much easier to get at if he had sent his troops north and south. Neither of these countries is crawling with RPG and assault rifle equipped citizens.
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It might be expensive to wage a war, but when you use millions of barrels each day, the perspective of an expensive war presently, is much cheaper then a perspective of no (or less) oil in the (near) future.
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
7) Bush is a megalomaniac and wants to take over the world. Umm, a possibility I guess, but not real likely.
8) The war was initiated so Bush could award his cronies with the rebuilding contracts. Again, I would say the price tag of the war would omit this as a sole possibility. To be sure, Bush's friends have reaped the benefits of the post-war redevelopment. However, there's easier and more appreciated (by the public) ways for a gov't to reward it's friends (such as improving things that are actually in the U.S. ie, new roads and developments)
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Got no real comments about these two hypotheses. I don't know Bush and the US politics well enough
[QUOTE=Slick Fork]
9) The gov't wanted to show the American public that it was taking a proactive/pre-emptive approach to dealing with the terrorist threat. This is a very likely possibility, we have to remember that politicians are primarily creatures that crave public adoration. Their concern is primarily getting re-elected and well remembered in the history books, and more often then not, it is better to be seen doing something then doing nothing at all.<snip>
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This I think is very plausible actually.
....next post comming up in closing
