Russia invades Georgia - WW3 on it's way?

[Lady Dragonfly]

Galraen, I think your righteous anger is misplaced. Watchin' too much CNN, eh? This particular war was started by Georgia. Georgia and Ossetia are fighting for about 20 years, in case you did not know. The conflict is mostly about territorial integrity.


And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

[Tricky]

I don't think it matters if it was started by Georgia. Russia has been actively claiming territory there, going as far as handing Georgian citizens Russian passports. Desired or not by these people, Russia had an agenda here. They cleverly waited out the building tensions until they could play the part of a peacekeeping force. That's foul. I'm with Georgia because nothing here hasn't already happened before in the US, Germany's or even Holland's not too distant past in south-east Asia. The lesser being manipulated by the greater.

I really do wish Russia would be disqualified for the Olympics. I know it's peanuts compared to people being murdered in Georgia, but the whole damn world is watching that instead of the news. I guess the superpowers (yes, including the US) are just untouchable, above IOC philosophy and all.

[GawainBS]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Dragonfly And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

Not directly, but there's a very important pipeline running through Ossetia. Initiating open hostilities in a conflict isn't the same as starting the conflict. The previous post made that pretty clear.

[Xandax]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Dragonfly <snip> And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

Well, I've seen various media reports indicating otherwise, but even if there aren't any oil resources in the area, it is still an important issue due to pipelines.
As I understand it, Georgia have agreed to build pipelines leading oil/natural gas into Europe when they applied for NATO, threatening the Russian near (de facto) monopoly of energy pipelines.

Plus that fact - Georgia and NATO - is something Russia no doubt would dislike. Combined with the missile defense system. Combined with Russia's need for asserting itself internally and internationally.

Russia have many many interests in escalating the conflict with Georgia; economical, military and internal politics; and as far as reports goes, they also support separatists in other Georgian territorial regions, plus prior to this situation have violated Georgian territorial space with its military.
Russia does not have clean hands in this mess either.
Plus Russia is bombing Georgian territories and blockading the country by sea as well, moving far away from "peacekeeping" to prevent civil war, to actual acts of war.

[Tricky]

I don't know about Ossetia, but the whole of Georgia produces about 2000 barrels per day. That's very little though. Even Holland produces something in the area of 70.000 barrels per day. The pipelines probably have some strategic value, Georgia and Azerbaijan being a land bridge between the Caspian and the Black sea, but I can't see Russia start a war over something like that. It's different when it's 100% about the oil, like with the US, but I don't think that's the case here. I think the cause to this conflict has more ties to nationalism than capitalism.

Either way, I want to move away to a magical palace on the moon.

[GawainBS]

Xandax pointed out the real value of the pipelines: it's Europe's only hope to not become exclusivly dependant on Russian (controlled) oil.

[Moonbiter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Dragonfly And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

THANK YOU! Finally, someone got to the point. An overview of the war and the background today was pretty fast in pointing this out, but it took me one search in Google to figure this out. You've heard about Google, folks? Anyone? If you had checked the background on South Ossetia you would have discovered that they have absolutely nothing! No natural resources, no industry. Nothing. They don't even have their own powerplants, and have to get electricity from North Ossetia. Their GDP is about that of a Paris Hilton shopping spree, and 60% of the state income is help from Russia. The rest is various taxes levied against international transport throught the region. The infamous pipeline is far from functioning, as it's never been finished, and it was supposed to produce energy FOR Ossetia, not go through it as some of you seem to think.

[Tricky]

Yes. Well, let's shell the bejesus out of them then. Bastards.

Again, it doesn't matter anymore how it began. It's about how this particular incident started. Everyone is getting sidetracked here.

[Xandax]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonbiter <snip>The infamous pipeline is far from functioning, as it's never been finished, and it was supposed to produce energy FOR Ossetia, not go through it as some of you seem to think.

Some information about it can amongst other sources be found on wikipedia:
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
While I rarely trust Wiki for anything but an overview - it provides some good points regarding the strategic importance of the area for Europe/the "Western" world and thus the USA.

Other sources seems to support this.

The pipeline - whether you want or not - is strategical. Most hits on Google will tell you that (yes, we heard of it )

[Xandax]

Read on a danish news media - and while the information is sketchy still, it could escalate - that Ukraine is going to prevent Russian naval forces from returning to Sevastopol while the situation is unsolved.

More fuel to the fire.

Plus reports are flowing that apparently Russia is aiding Abkhazia. It looks like Russia is hellbent on minimizing Georgia.

[galraen]

It doesn't particularly surprise me that there are people arguing on Russia's behalf, mostly with honourable intentions I know. Unfortunately equally honourable people tried to defend Germany after the invasion of the Sudetenland too.

I found it very amusing that the BBC's 'Have your say' forum was completely saturated with Russians trying to portray themselves as Angels and the Georgians as Devils, and warning that we were being mislead by our mass media. Not like in Russia f course were the media is free and independent and totally out of the control of the ruling party!

The way that the Russian authorities orchestrated the internet blitz was very reminiscent of the way the NRA orchestrate pre-emptive media strikes whenever a gunman goes on a killing spree. Who learned what from whom I wonder?

Just to point out, I'm not accusing anyone on this forum of being members of the KGB or participating in an orchestrated defence of Russia.

[Xandax]

Well, to be fair - a lot of the information is sketchy and Russia and Georgia both have their sides of the story. So keeping a somewhat objective point of view is properly the best course of action while trying to filter the information.
It isn't an "pro-" or "anti-" Russia discussion this, and people are allowed to take other perspectives.

I suspect there is massive amount of mis-information floating around on various boards/newsforums etc now, and it is important to try and keep a level head.

[Moonbiter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xandax Some information about it can amongst other sources be found on wikipedia: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia While I rarely trust Wiki for anything but an overview - it provides some good points regarding the strategic importance of the area for Europe/the "Western" world and thus the USA. Other sources seems to support this. The pipeline - whether you want or not - is strategical. Most hits on Google will tell you that (yes, we heard of it )

Actually, the BTC pipeline runs nowhere near South Ossetia, but I agree that it is a strategical object in Georgia. The Dzaurikau-Tskhinvali pipeline however, started construction in 2006, meant to pump natural gas into South Ossetia, who badly needs the energy. It is still not functional, mainly due to interference from Georgia, who are doing their damned best to sabotage the construction.

I definetly work for the KGB. Waddaya mean they were disbanded in -95? Damn! I should check my messages more often!

[Lady Dragonfly]

Galraen, please help me decide whether I should thank you for calling my (and Moonbiter's) point of view "mostly honourable" or take offense?

Who started the war?

There is a very interesting response to this question, containing lots and lots of information about the events preceeding this conflict (a warning to those suffering from the ADD: it is long):

Who really started this russia-georgia conflict? - Yahoo! Answers

A short snippet:

The 2008 Georgia-Russia crisis began on March 6, 2008 when Russia announced that it would no longer participate in the CIS economic sanctions imposed on Abkhazia in 1996.[1] The crisis has been linked to the push for Georgia to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan and the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.[2] Tensions in the crisis have been primarily centered around the breakaway state of Abkhazia and increased following the shootdown of a Georgian UAV drone airplane and subsequent buildup of military forces by Russia.

Lifting of CIS sanctions
Responding to Kosovo's recent declaration of independence, Russian officials declared Moscow should “reshape its relations with self-proclaimed republics”.[3] Russia responded to these calls for increased ties by lifting CIS sanctions, declaring them "outdated, impeding the socio-economic development of the region, and causing unjustified hardship for the people of Abkhazia".[1] Russia also called on other CIS members to undertake similar steps, but met with protests from Tbilisi and lack of support from the other CIS countries.[4] Shalva Natelashvili, leader of the Labor Party of Georgia, warned Abkhazia would be "finally separated from Georgia" and cited the lifting of sanctions as the first sign.[5] Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, raised similar concerns about the dropping of trade restrictions saying, "That could look like a de facto annexation and that would be a matter of great concern if it were the case."[6]


Russian increase of ties with breakaway republics in Georgia
Abkhazia and South Ossetia both submitted formal requests for recognition of their independence to Russia, among other countries, and international organizations as a response to the recognition of Kosovo.[7][8] Russia's Duma called a session for March 13 to discuss the issue of recognition in respect to the unrecognized republics in the Former Soviet Union.[9] Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel said the European Union was concerned by what it considered moves by Russia to recognize Abkhazia. External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said, there was "a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia," and stated the EU's support for Georgia's territorial integrity........

[Xandax]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonbiter Actually, the BTC pipeline runs nowhere near South Ossetia, but I agree that it is a strategical object in Georgia. The Dzaurikau-Tskhinvali pipeline however, started construction in 2006, meant to pump natural gas into South Ossetia, who badly needs the energy. It is still not functional, mainly due to interference from Georgia, who are doing their damned best to sabotage the construction. I definetly work for the KGB. Waddaya mean they were disbanded in -95? Damn! I should check my messages more often!

34 miles from South Ossetia is hardly "nowhere near".