For 2007 Americans see doom, gloom.. and The Second Coming

[dragon wench]

Poll: Americans see gloom, doom in 2007

WASHINGTON - Another terrorist attack, a warmer planet, death and destruction from a natural disaster. These are among Americans' grim predictions for the United States in 2007.

Only a minority of people think the U.S. will go to war with
Iran or
North Korea over those countries' nuclear ambitions. An overwhelming majority of those surveyed think Congress will raise the federal minimum wage. One-third see hope for a cure to cancer.

These are among the findings of an Associated Press-AOL News poll that asked people in the U.S. to contemplate what 2007 holds for the country.

Six in 10 people think the U.S. will be the victim of a terrorist attack. An identical percentage thinks it likely that a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world.

Seventy percent of people in the U.S. predict a major natural disaster in the country and an equal percentage expects worsening global warming. Also, 29 percent think it likely that the U.S. will withdraw its troops from
Iraq.

Among other predictions for the U.S. in 2007:

_35 percent predict the military draft will be reinstated.

_35 percent predict a cure for cancer will be found.

_25 percent anticipate the second coming of Jesus Christ.*

_19 percent think scientists are likely to find evidence of extraterrestrial life.

With Democrats poised to take control of Congress this week, eight in 10 people predict lawmakers will raise the $5.15-an-hour federal minimum wage. It would be the first increase since 1997.

Democratic leaders have proposed raising it in stages to $7.25 an hour.
President Bush has said he supports the idea, with some protections for small businesses.

Fewer than half the public think it likely the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea. Should it come down to that, 40 percent think the battle will be with Iran while 26 percent said North Korea.

Higher gas prices, legalized gay marriage and the possible arrival of bird flu also are seen as being in the cards.

More than 90 percent of people think higher gas prices are likely. A gallon of self-serve regular gasoline averaged $2.29 last week, compared with $3 over the summer.

Also, 57 percent said it is likely that another state will legalize gay marriage. Same-sex marriage is legal in Massachusetts; four other states offer civil unions or domestic partnerships.

People were split on whether 2007 will bring the U.S. its first bird flu case. More than 150 people worldwide have died from the disease. Health officials fear a pandemic if the virus mutates into a form easily passed from person to person.

Women generally were more likely than men to expect some of the more dire predictions to come true, such as a worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea. Democrats and people under 35 were more likely than Republicans and older people to say global warming will worsen in 2007.

The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted Dec. 12-14 by Ipsos, an international polling firm. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

*OK... I don't mean to step on anyone's beliefs here... but I have to admit I find the fact that 25% of Americans apparently view the return of Christ in the coming year as... surprising...

[fable]

I can't speak to AP, but the way AOL conducts its polls is to put up a few choices, then allow anybody to vote...and vote...and vote...and vote. You can sign back in as often as you want, and vote again. This tends to bias the results in favor of any nutjo...I mean, any well-meaning, right-thinking person who feels so strongly about matters they can't simply vote once.

[dragon wench]

Originally Posted by fable

I can't speak to AP, but the way AOL conducts its polls is to put up a few choices, then allow anybody to vote...and vote...and vote...and vote. You can sign back in as often as you want, and vote again. This tends to bias the results in favor of any nutjo...I mean, any well-meaning, right-thinking person who feels so strongly about matters they can't simply vote once.

Well, this was alledgedly conducted by Ipsos via telephone.... So hard to know what happened.
Still though, interesting info on the AOL polls, it explains a lot, since quite a few of those I've seen have some seriously skewed looking numbers !

[fable]

Originally Posted by dragon wench

Well, this was alledgedly conducted by Ipsos via telephone.... So hard to know what happened.
Still though, interesting info on the AOL polls, it explains a lot, since quite a few of those I've seen have some seriously skewed looking numbers !

A telephone poll? I'd have a hard time accepting a telephone poll of anything except a mental institution, if 25% of the inmates said the next year would see the coming of Christ. The US? Not a chance. Especially since even the ones believing that eschatological stuff generally figure every Jew has to first become a Christian before the return of Christ, the appearance of the anti-Christ, the eruption of a volcano spewing McDonalds' hamburgers, etc, all occur.

Understand, I'm not suggesting my fellow USians aren't on occasion more than capable of endless denial over a range of topics. But this simply doesn't reflect either religious or voting demographics.

[Sean The Owner]

Originally Posted by dragon wench

Poll: Americans see gloom, doom in 2007

[color="Gray"]WASHINGTON - Another terrorist attack...

only one spam from me here...

how'd they figure it out already? i havent even gotten the money from Moonbiter was it? or someone with a letter in their name (see the israel topic for more info)

[Crenshinibon]

Oh come on. This poll is clearly biased. First of all, it's 75% of poll takers, not people in America. Second of all, only people that feel strongly about these things would bother going to the website to answer these questions or take their time to call in to give their answer (or to talk to the person that wants their answer).

Whatever the number of the actual poll takers, it does not reflect the opinions of the majority of the American population.

[dragon wench]

@Fable and Crenshinibon,
indeed!

The thing about polls, like statistics, of any variety is that they are highly vulnerable to manipulation. I just posted the above because I found it amusing

@Sean,
I think Moonbiter had it bang on, unless your knowledge of geography improves I doubt you're a serious threat to anyone's national security.

[Sean The Owner]

Originally Posted by dragon wench

@Sean,
I think Moonbiter had it bang on, unless your knowledge of geography improves I doubt you're a serious threat to anyone's national security.

youre pretty much telling me to prove you wrong, and i will, once i move out of this town

[Magrus]

First of all...and this is important...these are the people that are bored and accept the stuff put out on AOL as important. This is like asking the folks at an all you can eat buffet place what their thoughts are on politics or nuclear fission. I'd like to see the number of the people who voted who happen to believe what is written in the National Enquirer happens to be real.

Second of all, even if humans find a cure for cancer, I'm going to giggle myself silly. Why? People are going to FREAK OUT when they see what happens next to kill off the majority of the population. Apparently, people aren't getting the big picture with all of these illnesses, sexaully transmitted diseases, cancers, etc. Cure for cancer? Sure. Maybe next we'll all spontaneously combust and just get things done more efficiently eh?

Third, this terrorist attack thing? I really don't think anyone would bother with a terrorist attack on this country in the next year. No, if anything, the smart thing to do would be to attack en masse over the next 6 months on this country and try to take it over before the army comes home. If someone is stupid enough to launch a terrorist attack on the US before 2008, I hope they get shot for the idiocy of wasting resources on something tactically unsound.

Fourth, the only way I see a nuclear or biological warfare being started is if someone invades North Korea or the US. To be brutally honest, everyone worrying about North Korea has to be smoking something wicked strong, because the US is a much bigger threat to any other country in the world. This country owes an incredible amount of money to a large number of countries and is throwing it's weight around trying to do some idiotic subtle conquering of countries with precious resources.

Fifth, Scientists are incapable of finding intelligent life, why do people happen to believe they are capable of finding extraterrestrial life? Unless the two are related, in which case, maybe I'll be able to drink with some smart aliens on New Years next year? That would be super fun.

Sixth, Minimum wage needs to go up. Although, that wouldn't much affect NY, as the states minimum wage has just gone up over a 2 year increase to just under the proposed increase cap. Unless there was a comparable increase ratio, adding in another $1.50 an hour to New Yorkers. Which, is really necessary...people are getting screwed here left and right with the economy. It's sad when the country everyone used to move to in order to make their dreams come true has people working full time every week and still can't feed their kids or pay their rent every week.

Seventh, Global warming will worsen? Well...duh. I'm gonna go to the bathroom tomorrow. Ooooh...I can predict the future!

@ DW, ON the contrary, I think he could be a very serious threat to SOMEONE's national security. However, it's kind of like spinning a wheel. He may have a goal in mind, but who knows what place he'll set on fire.

Oh, yeah, my new boss lets me eat and drink for free at their little bar. Woohoo! This message is brought to by free rum and cokes.

[Silur]

Interviewing about 1000 americans seems just about right if you want a 3% error, 95% confidence poll of the general view of the US population. Rather, I think the error comes from the selection. I mean, how many normal people have a) the time, b) the patience and c) the trust required to pay attention to anyone calling them up on the phone? If someone calls me on the phone (in the US) and starts asking me questions, I'd be counting the seconds to the point where the sales pitch comes in. Now, if no salespitch shows up, it will be too late to change all the ridiculous answers I've given. If the poll takers are any good, they have a decent lying/faking scale on the test so they know to exclude me. Telemarketing has simply destroyed the telephone as a medium for meaningful statistical polls.

If the poll was made correctly and the sample was chosen properly, you would be surprised at how accurate a poll is in showing the general sentiments of the population. Discrediting polls with "it's just statistics" is plain ignorance.