Tabula Rasa: Financial Disaster

[Xandax]

Originally Posted by Brother None

I think you misunderstood. To a fabricator of Generic Cola, the brand-loyal Coca Cola customers are still a part of Cola market (I never said otherwise), but they're not a part of the consumer potential he's trying to reach. He can't sell his Cola to those Coca fans, they're not a penetrable market.

I disagree. Because now you begin to talk segmenting of the consumer potential (if you prefer that versus my usage of market).
Not trying to reach a specific segment is a business/marketing strategy, and unless another MMO company comes out and says they aren't trying to target amongst other players, the WoW players, then I'd write off such arguments as pure speculation, and even then I'd simply attribute it to a PR spin to avoid setting the goal to high publicly.
Funcom might try to reach a different market segment with their "mature" label, however, they try to penetrate the MMO market, in which WoW is a factor.
Just as when a cola-manufacturer would launch his cola, he'd undoubtedly encounter Coca-cola drinkers, aka the coca-cola market segment.
Even though advertisement and (claimed) "target audience" might be different from WoW-players, they are part of the same base consumer segment, acting on the same market. They are the market.
When another fantasy MMO releases, the consumer potential, market segment, they are trying to reach are amongst other the WOW players, just as when Bethesda released Oblivion, they weren't only aiming at fans of Bethesda, but also other gamers who have preferences within the same genre. But they are also acting on the market of all gamers.
Their advertisment and target audience aside, they act on the computer game market. The total number of gamers, will directly affect their decisions.
And if they know there are 10 million gamers worldwide within said genre, they make different decisions, then if they know there are only 2 million.
Then you can call it consumer potential, but they still act upon the market, and the market size is directly related to the number of consumers on said market. Especially when it is a subscription based economical model.

Originally Posted by Brother None

That's what I meant when I said "you're mixing up market and consumer potential", and you're still doing it. The question for a marketer is not just "are there more people playing MMOs now than ever?" - which is partially just a question about general popularity of the product - it's more "how many people can I get to play my MMO?"

Yes, I know the difference, however right now there are exact figures on how many (potential) could buy the product. That [potential] is directly related to the size of the market.
Years ago that [potential] looked to be vastly smaller, then it does now, thus the [potential] means it is a more attractive market.
The fact that there is one major player does not diminish this fact.
Going back to WoW, I believe their initial projection was about a million copies. I would almost wager on that number was based on, amongst other factors, the number of subscribers in other similar products (Everquest, DAoC and similar comparable games).
They judged the market as they could see it and projected accordingly. Likewise, I'd wager that is how it goes today. Any business doing any type of projecting will judge the size of the market, the number of potential customers if you'd rather have that phrase.

Originally Posted by Brother None

Now - so far - almost all other MMOs are losing people as WoW grows. Maybe the consumer potential is there, but nobody has been able to tap into it. That means that right now, while the market has been expanded for MMOs thanks to WoW, the direct consumer potential for new MMOs has not yet proved to be bigger. In that sense, "there are more people paying to play MMOs now than ever" is - for a marketer - nothing more than a simple recognition of a fact that for the purposes of selling his own products might as well be completely abstract. It has yet to mean anything for new MMOs.

The fact that nobody have managed to tap into the consumer base, is because it have been products which either have not delivered what promised or not have delivered anything significantly different. Or because it is an old product.
Vanguard didn't deliever, LOTOR didn't deliver anything significantly different.

That is similar with cola. The reason why a generic vendor can't tap into Coca-colas consumer base is that a) he delivers as worse product, or b) he doesn't deliver a reason to switch brand.

Originally Posted by Brother None

And that's the real question. Not "do lots of people play WoW", but "has WoW increased consumer potential on the MMO market for other MMOs". You say yes, the numbers say no.

You're thinking in too absolute terms. To paraphrase Morbo; "economics do not work that way!"

No number says so.
The numbers you quote says that older games, and newer games which didn't deliver waht the consumer wanted, can't tap into WoW's market share.
Not that the consumer potential is smaller then it was pre-WoW.
On the contrary - the numbers says otherwise, and that is economics.

[Brother None]

Originally Posted by Xandax

I disagree. Because now you begin to talk segmenting of the consumer potential (if you prefer that versus my usage of market).

Now I begin? It's what I've been saying all along

Originally Posted by Xandax

and unless another MMO company comes out and says they aren't trying to target amongst other players, the WoW players, then I'd write off such arguments as pure speculation

At the same panel, Nexon's Min Kim agreed that developers trying to steal WOW's users would lose.

But you already noted that because this doesn't fit your argument you're discarding it as PR spin, so what's the use, amirite?

Originally Posted by Xandax

Just as when a cola-manufacturer would launch his cola, he'd undoubtedly encounter Coca-cola drinkers, aka the coca-cola market segment.

Sure. That doesn't really directly relate to what I've been saying, though, does it?

Originally Posted by Xandax

Then you can call it consumer potential, but they still act upon the market, and the market size is directly related to the number of consumers on said market. Especially when it is a subscription based economical model.

Ok. That's a bit of a peripheral argument to make, though. I don't see how it directly relates to the health of the MMO industry for non-WoW MMOs, in fact. Other than that they can find comfort in knowing that the consumers exist, at least.

Originally Posted by Xandax

Yes, I know the difference, however right now there are exact figures on how many (potential) could buy the product.

There are also exact numbers on how many people are buying the product. Potential is speculation, it's not like we don't have any numbers to go on otherwise...

Because this:

Originally Posted by Xandax

The numbers you quote says that older games, and newer games which didn't deliver waht the consumer wanted, can't tap into WoW's market share.
Not that the consumer potential is smaller then it was pre-WoW.
On the contrary - the numbers says otherwise, and that is economics.

Is pure nonsense.

You're arguing reality doesn't matter because - in your opinion - nobody has seriously tried to tap into the market yet.

I'm sorry, but it doesn't work that way.

Fact: the MMO market looks really bad.
Opinion: this is because the MMOs being produced aren't that good.

Let's keep fact and opinion separate. I mean, it's not like the RPG market, where people say "PC RPGs are dead" because none sell when no one is producing them.

Your analysis of the situation is that the bad market has to do with failure to produce good competitors. And that's fine, it's a valid opinion and it might even be true, but trying to sell it off as fact is a bit much. Fact is the market looks bad, as Cryptic dude said in that post I linked to there's only been one 100k+ MMO since WoW. You can argue until your face turns blue what's the cause of this, but the hard facts will still stand.

[Xandax]

Originally Posted by Brother None

At the same panel, Nexon's Min Kim agreed that developers trying to steal WOW's users would lose.

But you already noted that because this doesn't fit your argument you're discarding it as PR spin, so what's the use, amirite?

No, cause that is only his opinion. He's entitled to his opinion, and frankly - that wasn't anywhere near what I stated.

Originally Posted by Brother None

You're arguing reality doesn't matter because - in your opinion - nobody has seriously tried to tap into the market yet.

I'm sorry, but it doesn't work that way.

No that is not what I'm arguing at all "in my opinion".
I'm arguing that you can't say that the market is bad as a fact, based on your subjective interpretation of some (IMO failed, or objectively old) games subscription numbers versus WoW subscription.
That is you stating something as a fact, when it is your opinion.
In my opinion - the market looks healthy, because there are more visible on it now then ever before. It is highly competitive, difficult to penetrate. But that doesn't make it bad.
Simply because outdated/old products and current products can't outsell another product, does not make said market bad.

Originally Posted by Brother None

Fact: the MMO market looks really bad.
Opinion: this is because the MMOs being produced aren't that good.

Stating something as a fact doesn't make it so.
Opinion: the MMO market looks really bad.
Opinion: this is because the MMOs being produced aren't that good.

Originally Posted by Brother None

Let's keep fact and opinion separate. I mean, it's not like the RPG market, where people say "PC RPGs are dead" because none sell when no one is producing them.

Indeed that would be good.
Claiming the market is bad, because there is one major player is ..... well, opinion, not a "fact". Especially when that "fact" is based on, well, nothing.

Originally Posted by Brother None

Your analysis of the situation is that the bad market has to do with failure to produce good competitors. And that's fine, it's a valid opinion and it might even be true, but trying to sell it off as fact is a bit much. Fact is the market looks bad, as Cryptic dude said in that post I linked to there's only been one 100k+ MMO since WoW. You can argue until your face turns blue what's the cause of this, but the hard facts will still stand.

"If it is on the Internet - it must be true".
Claiming the market is (now looks) "bad", because there have only been a single 100K+ MMO since WoW is an opinion. It is not factual in anyway.
Then you can keep claiming it as so, until my face turns blue, but that doesn't alter it.

Fact#1: More subscribers on the market now then prior to WoW.
Fact#2: More money in the market due to it.
Fact#3: No other game have made any significant penetration into WoW's player base.

All of these are purely objective.
My opinion is that Fact3 is based on failure of products; dissapointed consumers; much of it quite visible if one have followed development of some of these "contenders", followed the communities, and seen the reason why people leave the game and/or the community.

However there is no fact that despite #1 and #2 that the "market" is in worse condition now then it was prior to WoW.

People - myself inclusive - left TR because it didn't deliver on some crucial areas. Notable there is a serious lack of end-game in the game meaning in MMO terms, no reason to play. People left Vanguard because it was a horrible shamble. People tried and left LOTOR because they could just as well continue playing something which resembled it but where they had invested years of gametime.

Furthermore - NCSoft have not given up on TR yet, and that fact alone shows they see potential in the market still. So perhaps it isn't such a bad market afterall. Suppose this - if the market was bad, and it was so obvious to outsiders, then why would companies pump millions into trying to penetrate said market. They do so because the possible rewards, far outweigh the risk.

So I'd suggest taking your own advice, and differentiate opinion from fact, before wanting others to do so.

Saying the market is in bad shape now, because current games can't penetrate would indicate some magic 8-ball knowledge that those games would have had more subscribers without WoW. That would be yet another assertion based on nothing but speculation.
Perhaps, just perhaps, the games were just so bad as the numbers state?

[Brother None]

Originally Posted by Xandax

Claiming the market is bad, because there is one major player is ..... well, opinion, not a "fact". Especially when that "fact" is based on, well, nothing.

I think we lost communication here somewhere. In any case, it looks like we're judging to different things, and your argument appears to be about market potential as it very well could be based on an absolute number of subscribers, while my arguments appears to be about market potential as it very well could be based on the success of recent newcomers.

Regardless of which one of us is winning at the internet, we're talking past each other.

Originally Posted by Xandax

Claiming the market is (now looks) "bad", because there have only been a single 100K+ MMO since WoW is an opinion. It is not factual in anyway.

This is a good example of how we're talking past one another.

Let's say Shell owned 90% of the world's oil retailing. From Shell's perspective, the market looks great. From the perspective of any newcomer, it looks terrible. But neither perspective is an opinion, both perspective are fact. But they're all perspectives.

Originally Posted by Xandax

However there is no fact that despite #1 and #2 that the "market" is in worse condition now then it was prior to WoW.

That's funny, because I'm fairly sure I never said the market is in worse condition. Just that non-WoW MMO consumption has been decreasing. And that's a truism.

Originally Posted by Xandax

Saying the market is in bad shape now, because current games can't penetrate would indicate some magic 8-ball knowledge that those games would have had more subscribers without WoW.

I'm sorry but saying the market is in a bad shape now now because it isn't being penetrated now isn't 8-ball knowledge, it's a self-asserting fact.

Claiming to know what will happen if an MMO appears that fulfil your standards of WoW-beater is 8-Ball knowledge, which is what my whole original point in my first reply to here was: your argument is an if-then argument about what could happen, but that doesn't change what is - right now.

[Kheros]

My point in the beginning was this:
Before WoW the high-water mark was 1 mil
After WoW it still looks to be 1 mil (for everyone but WoW.)

WoW has broken all projections, and as such it is not something one can really facture into any kind of decision-making when launching a new MMO.