Help me Obi-Wan! You’re my only hope! (in football)

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Gwalchmai
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Help me Obi-Wan! You’re my only hope! (in football)

Postby Gwalchmai » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:21 pm

Help! (Especially Bloodstalker, Mr. Sleep, and Ned Flanders) :)

Here’s the situation: My office has an annual football pool each year.* Everyone who participates contributes two dollars for each week in the regular season. Seventeen weeks = $34. One dollar goes to the weekly pot, and one dollar goes to the cumulative pot. Each week, before kick off of the first game, we all pick the winners of each game, and the score of the Monday night game. The winner each week wins the weekly pot, and a cumulative score decides who gets the final pot at the end of the year. (The Monday night score is used as a tie-breaker for the weekly pots)

My problem is, I don’t know very much about football, and since having kids, I don’t even get to watch the games anymore. I could use all the advice I can get. So, I was thinking of posting up my potential picks each week, and letting you all help me out.

The other thing to consider, is that the leader of the pool somehow manages to win the cumulative pot every year without actually winning any of the weekly pots….. This is very infuriating, and it would be great if a lowly no-nothing like me could take him down a notch or two. What do you all think? :D

Week one looks like this: (my tentative pick in bold)

San Francisco vs. NY Giants
NY Jets vs Buffalo
Minnesota vs Chicago
San Diego vs Cincinnati
Kansas City vs Cleveland
Atlanta vs Green Bay
Philadelphia vs Tennessee
Detroit vs Miami
Arizona vs Washington
Baltimore vs Carolina
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay
Seattle vs Oakland
St. Louis vs Denver
Dallas vs Houston

And on Monday:
Pittsburgh vs New England 17 to 12


* Note to all you kids: Gambling is BAD. Don’t try this at home.
That there; exactly the kinda diversion we coulda used.

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Tybaltus
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Postby Tybaltus » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:26 pm

Ah this is what I do every week in football in the past 2 1/2 years. :cool: Pick the winner of each game. I have a 61% winning percentage, so I hope that helps on my reliability.

Here are my picks for week 1 (I picked them yesterday)
San Fransisco
Washington
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Chicago
Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Denver
Green Bay
Miami
Kansas City
NYJets
San Diego
Oakland
Dallas
New England

There are my picks for winners of week 1. Sorry, I dont post specific scores. That gets too complicated and too much guess work. I only do that for the REALLY significant games. :D

*please note that I do have a couple of upsets in each week of my picks*
“Caw, Caw!” The call of the wild calls you. Are you listening? Do you dare challenge their power? Do you dare invade? Nature will always triumph in the end.

[color=sky blue]I know that I die gracefully in vain. I know inside detiorates in pain.[/color]-Razed in Black

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frogus
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Postby frogus » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:27 pm

Why, oh HLD, do you suppose that Mr. Sleep has any knowledge whatsoever of American football? And if you have a good reason, @Mr. S, how, oh how, did you come across knowledge of American football in Wales? :confused: :cool: :D Anyway, my input is...umm..Go for Denver over Saint Louis...I have a good feeling about them :D ...
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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:34 pm

San Fran over Giants
I think Buffalo will wax the jets
Chicago should beat minn....I just don't like the Vikings at all
Cinncinatti might beat the Chargers....they usually start strong
Cleveland over KC....same reasoning as the Bungels
Green bay will kill Atlanta
Tennessee is gonna beat the one dimensional eagles
Anyone is gonna beat Detroit, so Miami gets the game this week
Washington will beat Arizona

Even THIS year, baltimore can take Carolina
Colts over jacksonville

Tampa VS NO....this one worries me, but Tampa has a new offensive scheme, so I'll take the Saints
Oakland over seattle
St.Louis beats denver
And the Cowboys :mad: beat Houston

let the arguments commence :D

Great thread gwally :cool:
Lord of Lurkers

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Tybaltus
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Postby Tybaltus » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:41 pm

@BS You forgot the game of the week: New England vs Pittsburgh.
BTW-I wouldnt be to confident with Cin over SD or Cleveland over KC. And the Jets will DOMINATE over poor Buffalo. Buffalo has more than last year, but still lacks the potential to be a good team. I picked Denver over St. Louis for the upset. I dont like what I see in St. Louis in the preseason. They have done horribly. Tampa vs New Orleans will be a close one, I think, so no arguements here.

I still think you are crazy for picking Buffalo over NYJets. Thats not going to happen.
“Caw, Caw!” The call of the wild calls you. Are you listening? Do you dare challenge their power? Do you dare invade? Nature will always triumph in the end.

[color=sky blue]I know that I die gracefully in vain. I know inside detiorates in pain.[/color]-Razed in Black

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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:46 pm

BTW-I wouldnt be to confident with Cin over SD or Cleveland over KC. And the Jets will DOMINATE over poor Buffalo. Buffalo has more than last year, but still lacks the potential to be a good team. I picked Denver over St. Louis for the upset. I dont like what I see in St. Louis in the preseason. They have done horribly. Tampa vs New Orleans will be a close one, I think, so no arguements here


First off, Pittsburg is taking NE out. :p

Now, to respond :D

KC ain't there yet, but Cleveland should be able to pull off the win in a defensive game. As far as the Chargers go, Breese is gonna cost them more games than he wins for them the first half of the season. And cinncinati, if they had a QB, would be one of the top teams in the leauge as it is. besides, the Bengals start fast, then die out

The Jest are over, it was over after last year, and they are gonna start to slide this season. On the other hand, Bledsoe has got Moulds and Price to throw to, and Travis Henry is gonna be a household name by years end.

I agree, the Tampa Bay game could go either way. :D
Lord of Lurkers

Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell!

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Ned Flanders
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Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:56 pm

SF
Buff
Chic (big bias here, I HATE the Vikings)
SD vs. Cinncy (not even the best can handicap this one)
GB
Tenn
Miami
AZ (avid spurrier hater, I'll pick against them all year out of spite)
Balt vs. Car (the turkey of the week, see comments on SD vs. Cin)
Indy
TB
Oak
St. Louis
Dallas
Pittsburgh (do you think they'll be up for this game? (that's sarcasm) Come on, no contest, the Pats aren't very good and they are one of my favorite teams so you're getting an honest assessment from a fan).
Crush enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the women.

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Gwalchmai
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Postby Gwalchmai » Tue Sep 03, 2002 3:59 pm

@Tybaltus and BS, I see you both have four picks different from mine. Ty, I can see KC, since people always say ‘never bet against KC at home’ but do you really think that Denver will beat St. Louis? New Orleans, BS? Hmmm. Is your Tenn. pick just out of loyalty? (I have no illusions about Arizona…)

@Frogus: I mention Mr. Sleep because he offered to help me with my picks in another thread. I have no idea if he will know what he is talking about, but he can’t be as bad as I. :p Anyone will be welcome to comment. :)

BTW, average winning percentage in past pools is around 65%…
That there; exactly the kinda diversion we coulda used.

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HighLordDave
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Postby HighLordDave » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:01 pm

These would be my picks:

San Francisco
NY Jets
Minnesota
San Diego
Kansas City
Green Bay
Philadelphia
Miami
Washington
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
Oakland
St. Louis
Dallas vs Houston

Pittsburgh wins 31-14


@frogus:
I think Mr Sleep spends every waking hour in the summer watching NFL Europe and is a secret fan of the Barcelona Dragons. Or maybe his Ouija board is better at picking pro football scores than mine.
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If brute force doesn't work, you're not using enough.

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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:04 pm

@Gwally, nope, my team is the Redskins, but I admit they ain't going far this years. Tenn has a chip on their shoulder this season. :D

As far as NO goes, I think they got an edge over TB, the Bucs have a new offensive system and the defense went downhill last year, so who knows? :D
Lord of Lurkers

Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell!

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Gwalchmai
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Postby Gwalchmai » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:18 pm

Thanks, Ned and HLD.

Actually, Ned, it looks like (if I'm reading this right) the Las Vegas odds makers have both Balt. and Cinn. as 2-point favorites.... :)
That there; exactly the kinda diversion we coulda used.

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RandomThug
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Postby RandomThug » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:34 pm

@Flanders

................


......................................................... You will suffer all year.
Cause Spurrier is gonna lead the Skins to a damn Superbowl and I'll bet all over that.

Redskins All year baby. All freakin year. Were goin for the rings.

thug
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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:37 pm

@Random....Skins fan? It's good to see another one around here. :D
Lord of Lurkers

Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell!

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Ned Flanders
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Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:53 pm

I don't know about suffer. It's only a game, I won't lose any sleep over it if succeeds but I'd be pretty damn pleased to see him fail. I just don't like the man, he was bad for college football and he'll be bad for the NFL. Nothing against your skinz, mind you.

Anything is possible though, as recent years have proved you can win the super bowl with a par to below average QB.

I'm guessing your not basing your delusions of the Redskins on preseason statistics, at least, I hope not.
Crush enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the women.

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Ned Flanders
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Postby Ned Flanders » Tue Sep 03, 2002 4:58 pm

by gwally
Actually, Ned, it looks like (if I'm reading this right) the Las Vegas odds makers have both Balt. and Cinn. as 2-point favorites....



I was only kidding Gwally. My remarks are sarcastic because the teams involved in those games are...bad. If the winner of the season is hitting 65% of their games, they will certainly be tough to beat. Furthermore, at 65%, they should be playing for higher stakes but then again, Vegas makes you play the spread. Therein lies the challenge and the addiction that is handicapping/gambling on football. I sure love doing it but I would only do it for small change in local/work pools like you do. I could be one of those 'lost it all types' for sports betting so I avoid it. Fantasy football is different, it's a one time fee all season, makes sense.
Crush enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the women.

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Tybaltus
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Postby Tybaltus » Tue Sep 03, 2002 6:14 pm

Does no one believe in the Pats?! :mad: Come on! They are the champs! And they had a good pre-season along with a good draft. This game is going to be closer than everyone thinks. And besides, Pittsburgh was a fluke, thats right, a fluke last year. They arent as good as they look.

KC will come with a mediocre team this year, but they should better the Browns, who had a couple of key injuries, and are still mediocre.

Will Denver beat St. Louis? I would say that it is all depending on how much St. Louis acts like last year. The scores and performance is really down in St. Louis. They havent looked good in the pre-season, but they could have just been warming up. I pick that their offensive line will fail, even against Denver, and it will be a close game in the end. But if you want to pick St. Louis, I certainly dont blame you.

Cincinnati is still crap. They had a horrible draft day, and without a good quarterback, they wont put up many points. Just stop Dillon, and San Diego will cruise.

Jets? Done? HA! I wish! They still have the strenght they need to win, unfortunetly. Watch them just DISMANTLE the lowly Bills on Sunday. This is no contest.
“Caw, Caw!” The call of the wild calls you. Are you listening? Do you dare challenge their power? Do you dare invade? Nature will always triumph in the end.

[color=sky blue]I know that I die gracefully in vain. I know inside detiorates in pain.[/color]-Razed in Black

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HighLordDave
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Postby HighLordDave » Tue Sep 03, 2002 6:44 pm

These are my football views for this year:

NFC
East:
This is a scrappy division with no clear front-runner. The Eagles, Giants, Redskins and Dallas could all finish in first place or they could finish in last. I think the Cowboys with coach/GM Jerry Jones will finish last, but I can't call the winner.

North:
The Packers are clearly the best team in the division. I think the Bears will fall apart midseason, the Vikings will self-destruct like they did last year, and the Lions will fire Matt Millen at the end of the year for drafting Joey Harrington.

West:
The Rams are the best team in the division, although the 49ers are also pretty good this year, now that Mariucci and Owens kissed and made up. The Seahawks will be wondering what they hell they were thinking when they made Holmgren head coach/GM and the Cardinals will continue to be the second-worst run franchise in the league. Interesting factoid that may interest only me (again, apologies to Peter King): The Rams don't play a dome road game this year; the only turf they'll see is at home.

South:
This is the Bucs's division to lose. I think the Saints will revert back to the old days of the 'Aints and fire Jim Haslett, the Falcons should fire Dan Reeves, and the Panthers will play like they were an expansion team.

In short, there are two good teams in the NFC: the Rams and the Pack. The wannabes are the Bucs, the 49ers and whoever comes out of the NFC East on top. Everyone else is going to be watching TV in January.

AFC

East:
Top to bottom the AFC East is the toughest division in football, followed closely by the NFC East. I think the Dolphins come out on top, although the Jets and the Pats will give them a good run for the money. The Pats get no love from me because chemistry will only take a team so far and they don't have as much talent as either the Fish or the Jets. I think the Bills did themselves a huge favour by trading for Bledsoe, but they're still a year away from .500.

North:
The Steelers are the conference favourite because they should have beaten the Pats last year and faced the Rams in the Big One. If Kordell has a good year, the Steelers will have a good year. If Kordell has a bad year, Steelers fans will want Bill Cowher's head for not drafting Chad Pennington last year. The Ravens are rebuilding, the Browns will do better, but not make the playoffs and the Bengals will continue to be the worst-run franchise in the league. If only Mike Brown would fire himself as GM and let someone who knows football run the operation . . . but he's too much of a tightwad and Cincinnati will continue to ruin the careers of many, many fine young players.

West:
I like the Raiders in the AFC West because, quite frankly, no one else is very good. The Chargers are on the way up, but the Broncos and Chiefs are on the way down. **** Vermeill should have stayed retired. In Denver, you wonder if it was the system that produced all of the 1,000-yard backs or the illegal chop blocks the league is cracking down on. Neither Griese or Green will survive the season without being benched.

South:
The Colts are the best of the AFC's castoffs. Tony Dungy is the best thing that could have happened to them. The Titans are healthy again, but they're not the same team that went to the Super Bowl three years ago. They'll do better, but will still miss the playoffs. The Texans are an expansion team so they'll be lucky to win 4 games this year. The Jaguars are still digging themselves out of Salary Cap Hell and will play a lot like an expansion team. They should cut Brunell et al, blow the team up and start over.

The AFC is a much more competitive conference than the NFC, but they lack a clear frontrunner. If Kordell can pull off a full season without a meltdown, the Steelers will be playing in their sixth Super Bowl (big "if" there). Time's running out for the Raiders and I think an AFC East team will emerge as a contender for the AFC crown.

Still, unless Kurt Warner's thumb falls off, I think the Rams will be hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy in January.
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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 7:18 pm

@Ty....In choosing between the Steelers and the pats, I would say on past perfomance over le last few years, the Pats are more likely to be considered the "fluke"

I don't see them repeating, they have a tougher schedule, everyone will be ready for them, and last year, everything just came together.

And don't put to much stock in what you see in the preseason, it's mostly mis;leading. just look at the Skins, they beat Pitt, but face it, Pitt's starting team shut the skins out completely :rolleyes: :D And this coming from a skins fan

Cinn has always been crap the past decade, but they have an annoying habit of starting season 4-o or some similar record.

Jets, well just watch what I tell ya ;)
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Tybaltus
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Postby Tybaltus » Tue Sep 03, 2002 7:26 pm

Originally posted by Bloodstalker
@Ty....In choosing between the Steelers and the pats, I would say on past perfomance over le last few years, the Pats are more likely to be considered the "fluke"

I don't see them repeating, they have a tougher schedule, everyone will be ready for them, and last year, everything just came together.

And don't put to much stock in what you see in the preseason, it's mostly mis;leading. just look at the Skins, they beat Pitt, but face it, Pitt's starting team shut the skins out completely :rolleyes: :D And this coming from a skins fan

Cinn has always been crap the past decade, but they have an annoying habit of starting season 4-o or some similar record.

Jets, well just watch what I tell ya ;)

Well both teams can be considered flukes, but I dont see a whole lot of talent in Pittsburgh to be considered a great team. Dont get me wrong. I think theyre good. Theyll make the playoffs no problem. They will finish the season with 9 or 10 wins, but I just have no confidence in them.

The Pats wont repeat, I know this. But they arent that bad, either. I think they will have a decent year, but nothing to cause too much celebration. Theyll probably be a wild card playoff team

I know the preseason isnt important. But I am combining the preseason facts, with the draft, and the off season, along with the previous season to determine strength of team/chemistry offense and defense and special teams. Not to mention my own personal aspect. Thats what Ive been looking at.

Cinn only did that last season, if memory serves. And it wasnt even that great 2-0 then they struggled. That was considered good for Cinn.

Unfortunetly the Jets are going to do better than you think, but I hope youre right.
“Caw, Caw!” The call of the wild calls you. Are you listening? Do you dare challenge their power? Do you dare invade? Nature will always triumph in the end.

[color=sky blue]I know that I die gracefully in vain. I know inside detiorates in pain.[/color]-Razed in Black

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Bloodstalker
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Postby Bloodstalker » Tue Sep 03, 2002 7:37 pm

The Bengals are gonna be around 8-8 this season, just because gus frerrote is starting. He ain't a great QB, but he is better than anything they have had in awhile, and won't make as many turnovers as last season.

last years performance? Have you seen the last three Super Bowl Champions? :p :D

Cowher will make the difference in Pittsburg, and as long as Bettis stays healthy, they got a good shot to get to the Super Bowl :cool: Unless Kordel reverts that is :rolleyes:
Lord of Lurkers

Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell!